Now here we are……..
It is Wednesday already and time for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals between the Los Angeles Kings and the New Jersey Devils. When you have an eight seed up against a six seed, one has to say that this is just highly unlikely and yet it happened. A sign of the casual fan invading this type of series would be what happened on ESPN SportsNation with 49 of 50 states picking Los Angeles to win the silver chalice when all is said and done in the next couple weeks or less. Polls are often very inaccurate and reflect public sentiment as opposed to talent. This is why we take it to the next level with simulations.
The Los Angeles Kings have steamrolled their way through these playoffs with a 12-2 record including 8-0 on the road. Actually Los Angeles has looked quite vulnerable at home for most of the playoffs. Their two line forecheck has been downright devastating and how their defense has really stepped up is nothing short of otherworldly. Combine this with the play of Jonathan Quick and there is no surprise why the Kings are so widely favored in this series.
It does get a bit more hairy when you bring the experts into the equation. The wide consensus is that this series will go at least six with most having a fresher Kings team ultimately winning the series in six or seven games. There are quite a few experts though that think New Jersey can ride home ice advantage at least far enough to maybe steal one in LA and then win in six or seven themselves. It comes down to forechecking and defense for LA versus experience, balance, and depth for New Jersey. Whatever happens will make for some exciting hockey to close out the 2011-2012 season.
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FANTASY X Factors:
Dustin Penner, LW, Los Angeles Kings
Penner has been killed all year and been made fun of the whole “pancake injury”. If he is motivated, Dustin Penner is the perfect power forward to have in the playoffs. Clearly this King is engaged in the action and he is a huge reason why the Kings are in the Finals. Think about this for a second, Penner is big, fast, and skilled. This will spell problems for the Devils defense and how they play guys like Penner and then Dustin Brown will likely determine their fate. It will be interesting to see when Devils’ Coach Peter DeBoer uses all of his cards and when. Penner is a game changer and deck shuffler at the very least.
Stephen Gionta, W, New Jersey Devils
He was almost an afterthought all season but was inserted into the lineup before Game 82. He has not left the lineup since. His impact has been one of the main reasons why the Devils have advanced to the Finals. In a series where the top line players are going to get their points eventually, a guy like Gionta is so vital because his points will be just as impactful. People forget that in 1995, the “Crash Line” rose from fourth line obscurity to a playoff wrecking ball. Gionta leads this fourth line and they can be used in any time of situation to provide energy and that timely offensive punch.
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SCHEDULE TIME:
Wednesday, May 30, 2012 |
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| Teams | Notes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | at | New Jersey | 8:00 PM | ||
Well this is only Game 1 but there is just this growing sense that the pressure is on New Jersey? How! Los Angeles is favored in every state except New Jersey. The records are well documented. Los Angeles is the second coming. Right? Wrong! We throw out this obligatory stat. The 1995 and 2003 New Jersey teams both faced teams that went 12-2 in the playoffs and won. Just take some of these numbers and toss them out of a tall building please.
Intangibles will play a big role in Game 1 and the rest issue will likely be mentioned enough times to make anyone sick of it.
Anyway here is our sim for tonight……
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NHL 12 Sim — Kings @ Devils Game 1
What are we going to do? Simply, we are going to run the NHL 12 sims for Game 1. The Kings and Devils are fairly even in theory. It is all the intangibles that will play out throughout the rest of this series that will ultimately determine it. It is time.
It comes down to the Battle Of The Coasts, this simulation just had to come as these always have fantasy purposes along with fun prognostication. We played a total of seven games and this is what we came up with for our prediction. Again keep in mind, this may not happen obviously. Simply the rivalry deserves the utmost of respect in how the sims are run. Here were our results.
Devils-Kings Game 1
1st Period
NJD – Ilya Kovalchuk (15:12, Zidlicky)
2nd Period
LAK – Mike Richards (2:34, Carter and Voynov)
LAK – Dustin Brown (16:22, Kopitar and Doughty)
3rd Period
NJD – Zach Parise (1:24, PP, Elias and Kovalchuk)
NJD – Ryan Carter (11:15, Gionta and Salvador)
NJD – Patrik Elias (19:02, EN, unassisted)
Team Stats:
Shots
LAK- 28, NJD- 32
Power Plays
LAK- 0/3, NJD- 1/4
Final: Devils 4 Kings 2
3 Stars:
1. Ilya Kovalchuk 2. Zach Parise 3. Dustin Brown
The game is just hours away and if it approaches anything like the sims, it will be an awfully good one. We literally had some more consensus on this one so who knows what that will ultimately mean. Can New Jersey play its style or will Los Angeles impose more of its will? Time will tell but the sims seemed to dictate more of the same tonight. Let’s see what happens and again thanks for reading.
For the oh by the way…..the sims ranged from 5-3 LA to 7-3 New Jersey. There was that much of a spread. The one common theme was there were more goals scored than anyone expected so maybe Game 1 does have some crooked numbers. Stay tuned!
