Thanks to our friends at The Rat Trick for this picture by the way. However, when familiar fantasy faces appear in new places, questions begin to be asked. When are projections based too much on the “he is just too giddy to be out of a place” factor. This may be the case for Tomas Vokoun, now on the Washington Capitals (formerly a Florida Panther).
Depending on the reports one has read by now, if you are a fantasy hockey GM you know that Tomas Vokoun is only expected to get somewhere around 55 starts. His advanced age and tons of shots he has faced in the last several years cannot help his fantasy value. Red Light District has an excellent spotlight on some newcomers for the fantasy season in new places. There is just a growing sense that Washington even belives that Vokoun is a 1 who can start 60, 65, or even 70 starts. Let’s just say it appears they have some considerable doubt.et
Let’s take a quick look at Vokoun’s FLA numbers to take a closer inspection from Hockey Reference.
| Yr | T | G | W | L | T | SA | SV | SV% | GAA | SO | MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-08 | FLA | 69 | 30 | 29 | 8 | 2213 | 2033 | .919 | 2.68 | 4 | 4031 |
| 08-09 | FLA | 59 | 26 | 23 | 6 | 1855 | 1717 | .926 | 2.49 | 6 | 3324 |
| 09-10 | FLA | 63 | 23 | 28 | 11 | 2081 | 1924 | .925 | 2.55 | 7 | 3695 |
| 10-11 | FLA | 57 | 22 | 28 | 5 | 1753 | 1616 | .922 | 2.55 | 6 | 3224 |
Well here are Vokoun’s four years from Florida and it does paint a pretty grim picture to a point. He was overworked. Every year he faced over 30 shots a game. In two of the four Octobers, he faced over 37 shots a game which is unheard of in this era. Now his save percentage is encouraging but the the last three seasons he averaged right about 60 starts or 59.67 for those who are really good math majors.
Last I checked, Vokoun is 35 and Finnish goalies often start to age right before our eyes sort of like Miikka Kiprusoff, who has been under an unrelenting microscope in Calgary. His numbers are nowhere near what they once were and nowhere near as consistent either. Those .906 save percentages are no fun to the fantasy owner these days. Interestingly enough Washington plays a bit more of a defensive system than they had previously which did knock GAA for Washington goalies but did not help their save percentages necessarily. Michal Neuvirth had a .914 save percentage with a 2.45 GAA in 48 starts last year. He also had 27 wins. If you do the math and Vokoun does start 60 games, he will win somewhere close to 35 games at a max.
The cold reality is that Vokoun will be great bang for the buck but he does have a tendency to save the hard shots and not the easier ones which could be a bit of a problem in Washington. Our meat and potatoes analysis does not see Vokoun having this great breakout year as really Neuvirth and Vokoun may be closer in ability than most anyone thinks at this stage of the game. What is really going to happen?
Well we expect 32-35 wins from Vokoun in 55-60 starts. The GAA will be lower at probably a 2.35 to 2.40 with a save percentage between .915 and .920. That is not bad by any means but for the people expecting 40 wins and a 2.15 GAA may want to take the blue chill pill. People love hearing upside and if a heaping helping is needed to be dished out, we would be the first to serve it. In this case, it is not quite waranted.
So that is what we are projecting for Tomas Vokoun this season. If you have any questions at all, you know where to find us.
