Well when the activity of the “Frenzy” slows down, trades like these do have actual fantasy impact. When Andrew Cogliano was drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in 2005 with the 25th pick in the first round, he did have some high expectations. Those expectations for a variety of reasons did not pan out as he was shipped to the Anaheim Ducks today for a 2013 second round draft pick.
When you look at how Cogliano played with Edmonton, it is not a surprise that on the surface he did not have a prayer there up until his last season when he was given time of ice that was considered solid. Also, some fairly or unfairly have pointed to a lack of work ethic and execution as a reason for his departure from Edmonton. Some have also said it came down to a numbers game in Edmonton and someone had to go.
Unfortunately there are just circumstances (both mitigating and exacerbating) that scream something fishy happened in Edmonton. Yes we will now present Cogliano’s numbers below thanks to Hockey Reference.
Andrew Cogliano’s numbers with EDM…….
| Yr | Tm | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | ATI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-08 | EDM | 82 | 18 | 27 | 45 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 98 | 13:40 |
| 08-09 | EDM | 82 | 18 | 20 | 38 | -6 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 116 | 14:24 |
| 09-10 | EDM | 82 | 10 | 18 | 28 | -5 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 139 | 14:11 |
| 10-11 | EDM | 82 | 11 | 24 | 35 | -12 | 64 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 129 | 17:15 |
| Cr | 328 | 57 | 89 | 146 | -22 | 137 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 482 | 14:52 |
So what to make of all this? The expectations were high despite the fact that he dropped out of the top 15 in the 2005 draft. The Oilers were trying to compare him to a Paul Stastny. However, maybe that was just too unrealistic. We counter that with a piece from our good friend from Copper & Blue, Derek Zona. Faceoff wise, Cogliano was let’s just say poor or below average to be kind. The truth is he is just not an NHL Center and yet Edmonton ran him into the ground trying so without at least thinking of experimenting with Cogliano as a Winger. Nothing would have been wrong with at least trying that.
Derek has it right on the money but people forget that Tom Renney was a very good judge and of good scouting character of what players could and could not do. However, he dropped the puck sideways with Andrew Cogliano in this case and it may have stunted his career permanently. Maybe it has not. One thing is for sure and that is the fact he will get a chance to maybe play either a third line center or possibly a second line winger.
Now let’s reconcile this with what Jonathan Willis has said about Andrew Cogliano. Here is that quote.
“The math side of me would say that Cogliano’s the good shooter with poor results this year; his speed gives him good opportunities and we have a larger sample of Cogliano being an incredibly efficient shooter. The side of me that’s seen Cogliano play again and again over his NHL career tells me that he doesn’t have a spectacular shot and has difficulty reconciling what I’ve seen on the ice with this image of Cogliano as a high-end scorer.”
–Jonathan Willis, on Andrew Cogliano
Yikes. There is the dilemma in a nutshell. Part of the fantasy community feels just as torn. Can Cogliano be a top six guy who could score 50 points a year? Yes. The bigger question may be can he do this consistently or year after year. Cogliano’s wakeup call is now considering his shot is average to slightly above average at best and while his speed is like a Todd Marchant, his lack of ability to play in his own ends at times inhibits his ice time considerably on second look.
It still shocks me at how Tom Renney could just be so wrong on a player. Honestly I guess it just happens more than anyone could imagine. Next we have to explore the question, will Cogliano be able to bounce back, rededicate himself, and start proving worthy of his pick? Well let’s try to figure out if it is possible first.
Simply players have turned it around before. But this has to be said for all fantasy fans, writers, and experts. Andrew Cogliano will have to almost rework his entire game if he wants to become a better fantasy hockey player and just hockey player period. Our preliminary answer is that it is not likely but is not out of the realm.
Now hockey fans, let us have it. Does Cogliano have it in him to turn it around or not? We look forward to the responses because we know kind of how Edmonton and fans of Canada feel. Bring the heat and do not hold back!
