(Thanks to our friends up North for this one and now Buffalo has their puck moving defenseman).
So Christian Ehrhoff has signed a 10 year, 40 million dollar deal with the Buffalo Sabres. Ehrhoff gets a huge bonus and 18 million in the first two years of this contract which means he gets about 45% of the deal in the first two seasons. The deal gradually slides down to the last three years coming off at one million per annum (year).
The bigger question becomes what fantasy impact this will mean for Ehrhoff owners. Really it is a great question. First off, we have to bring the full stats into the equation from his NHL playing days only. Here it goes.
Cbristian Ehrhoff by the numbers……
| Yr | Tm | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PP | GW | S | S% | ATOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-04 | SJS | 41 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 58 | 1.7 | 15:23 |
| 05-06 | SJS | 64 | 5 | 18 | 23 | 10 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 124 | 4.0 | 17:48 |
| 06-07 | SJS | 82 | 10 | 23 | 33 | 8 | 63 | 6 | 2 | 164 | 6.1 | 18:34 |
| 07-08 | SJS | 77 | 1 | 21 | 22 | 9 | 72 | 1 | 1 | 97 | 1.0 | 21:44 |
| 08-09 | SJS | 77 | 8 | 34 | 42 | -12 | 63 | 5 | 2 | 165 | 4.8 | 21:14 |
| 09-10 | VAN | 80 | 14 | 30 | 44 | 36 | 42 | 6 | 3 | 181 | 7.7 | 22:47 |
| 10-11 | VAN | 79 | 14 | 36 | 50 | 19 | 52 | 6 | 3 | 209 | 6.7 | 23:59 |
Yes these numbers are presented for a reason and that is because of the following. Ehrhoff is going to negate some of the fantasy impacts of players who made surges for the Buffalo Sabres. Now first off, here is the players that this could hurt somewhat.N
Players this will impact negatively…..
1. Andrej Sekera
2. Marc-Andre Gragnani
3. Tyler Myers
Now this will sound controversial but Myers may be the one guy who loses in one area but may gain slightly in another. Gragnani and Sekera may feel more of a tangible impact as far as Gragnani’s potential numbers and Sekera’s TOI and points. Think about what could happen for a second here. Marc-Andre Gragnani has major potential but now with Robyn Regehr and Christian Ehrhoff brought into the mix, that changes things considerably. Time of ice is a key factor in determining point projections. Let us be blunt here.
Andrej Sekera brings it home for us with the toughest fantasy dilemma of all. He had 29 points last season only but it was his better play late in the year that turned heads. Though he only had 9 points in the last month, the TOI was key. He could top out around 25:00 a night. However with the additions, he may be lucky to top out near 20:00 a night. That puts a dent in things. Sekera still could get around 30 points this year but the man advantage numbers will suffer.
Now Tyler Myers is an interesting case. He had 48 points in his rookie campaign but dropped to 37 points last year. Myers did bounce back and got his +/- to even which was pretty impressive. While people thought that Myers had a god awful year especially in the first half, he again was able to pull it all back together. Just when the power play numbers come up at the end of the year, the Sabres sign Ehrhoff. That is going to dent Myers’ production a bit chemistry wise at first. It is the reason we hesitantly put Myers on this side of the ledger first.
Time to flip it with some positive…….
Players who will benefit from the signing….
1. Christian Ehrhoff
2. Tyler Myers (long term)
3. Kevin Bieksa
Well Ehrhoff will simply be better not from a +/- perspective but from a defensive and offensive standpoint. Buffalo has balanced weapons and depending on what they do in the rest of free agency could be even more telling as far as future Ehrhoff production. Christian Ehrhoff could still be a 45-50 point guy in Buffalo with as many or more power play points. This sounds a bit off base but this indeed could be the case. The talent is there but can Ehrhoff take the heat? That is the only unknown. With Myers on his side, he should be able to.
Tyler Myers will likely in the first year take a bit of a dip production wise but that may be evened out late in the year as chemistry with the rest of the six D-men takes shape. Myers will see above 37 points next season but will he get to 48? That is the unknown. Something in the middle is very likely with more even strength points this year and better defensive numbers as well. Robyn Regehr will be a solid mentor for Myers and long term this is going to make Myers not only a better fantasy option but also a better defenseman.
Hello Kevin Bieksa! This is your chance, with the new contract, to shine. Now his numbers were not that great last year but Vancouver has clearly made the mandate that he is a top pairing defenseman now with Ehrhoff gone. His numbers will go up and may get to the level of Ehrhoff’s which is a huge benefit for fantasy owners. Add in his hits, PIMS, shots, and increase in +/- is just too good to pass up. He is the guy who has the greatest fantasy benefit for people looking for a value.
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At the end, what will happen with Christian Ehrhoff? Hey, he is still likely projected for a 40-45 point year and depending on who they sign, these numbers could be bumped a tad. Honestly Ehrhoff will heat up even more in the second half which has to make people very pumped.
OUR PROJECTION (Tentatively): 12 G, 33 A, 45 pts +9 190 shots, 24:00 ATOI
Thanks and here comes the fantasy frenzy tomorrow err Free Agent Frenzy.
