(Video Credit: NHLVideo)
So Brandon Dubinsky was heading for an arbitration hearing when a funny thing happened. There was an agreement. The New York Rangers signed Dubinsky to a 4 year, 16.8 million dollar deal this morning avoiding a potential contentious hearing. Think about what this means future wise for Dubinsky as he will be a Ranger until he is the age of 29.
Is this a contract paying on potential? Especially for fantasy owners, this may be the case. Then again it may not be. If Dubinsky had say gone to the UFA market, he would have probably garnered a 4.5 million dollar deal per year at least. His “intrinsic value” is not necessarily as high as some but the potential is there as Dubinsky was a homegrown player.
What has Dubinsky done early on? Well thanks to Hockey Reference, here are the numbers that do not lie.
Brandon Dubinsky Career Numbers:
| Yr | Tm | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | EV | PP | SH | GW | S | ATI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-07 | NYR | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8:10 |
| 07-08 | NYR | 82 | 14 | 26 | 40 | 8 | 79 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 14:30 |
| 08-09 | NYR | 82 | 13 | 28 | 41 | -6 | 112 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 188 | 16:38 |
| 09-10 | NYR | 69 | 20 | 24 | 44 | 9 | 54 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 165 | 19:33 |
| 10-11 | NYR | 77 | 24 | 30 | 54 | -3 | 100 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 202 | 20:14 |
| C | 316 | 71 | 108 | 179 | 8 | 347 | 52 | 14 | 5 | 14 | 721 | 17:26 |
Now the numbers and points per game so steadily up and well as the ice time and points on the man advantage. Everything seems very encouraging for fantasy owners. Is he worth Andrew Ladd money? Is Ladd worth Ladd money? That may be a better question. Now Dubinsky was an end of the 2nd round pick while Ladd went 4th overall yet they are kind of the same player. Ladd had less ice time up until last year and not surprisingly still had a fairly steady climb.
What will Dubinsky do going beyond (in the next season)? To be honest, I like the mean streak in Dubinsky because a player that can score and garner some good PIMS (not dumb ones) is always a plus. There is a part of me that can even project Dubinsky to be a close to 30 goal scorer based on the progression.
Now what will next year’s impacts be? Well here they are in shortened Cliff Notes form.
POSITIVE FANTASY IMPACTS:
1. Sean Avery?
2. Ryan Callahan
3. Every Ranger prospect
NEGATIVE FANTASY IMPACTS:
1. Vinny Prospal
2. Weight of Potential Captaincy?
3. Rangers Fantasy Wall
Why do we mention “The Wall”? This is because it really is a possibility but not a likelihood. Two and three in the negative category may work together. There is a weight that goes with being a possible Captain in a big market. Some can handle it and most cannot. Ask Chris Drury who handled it but production wise could not for a variety of reasons. Dubinsky is in an unique position to get 20:00 + of ATOI a night and still be a second line forward. This is all moot if Dubinsky does not get the C of course.
The actualy fantasy production pressure is off a bit with the signing of Brad Richards. Sean Avery will potentiall be paired with Richards and Marian Gaborik. That actually does help Brandon Dubinsky because he can get points he would not have been able to last year realistically. It will be interesting to see what the Rangers do to help Dubinsky but it looks like so far so good.
Vinny Prospal is more than likely either good or in a diminished fantasy role with the Rangers. Also the Rangers are usually not in the top 10 in scoring amongst NHL teams but this year could be an exception which plays into the hands of another expected slight boost for the newest signed New York Ranger.
What will Dubinsky do next season? Well the seeming projection is a 30-30 guy with a point total in the low 60’s. Anything else would have to be considered a bit of a disappoinment. Give us your thoughts on Brandon Dubinsky and his fantasy value.
