It has been a crazy early start to the hockey season and particularly for bettors and bookies alike. Some will say it is one of the toughest starts to hockey betting in recent memory but with the unusual amount of one goal games, is it really? Yes this is a very small sample as Eric Engels of CTV.com acknowledged but it has helped some gain an edge in a very volatile part of the gambling industry.
Eric crunched some early season numbers and they seem to agree on what I have been saying all along that the underdogs are king early on. Why is this? Look at the 73 game mark here and thanks again Eric for these great numbers:
- 2005-06: 34 1-goal games/73
- 2006-07: 36 1-goal games/73
- 2007-08: 23 1-goal games/73
- 2008-09: 36 1-goal games/73
- 2009-10: 40 1-goal games/73
- 2010-11: 43 1-goal games/73– the highest total since the lockout
What do you know? The 50% mark has been reached in the last two seasons and was darn near close in 2006-07 and 2008-09. Teams are increasingly playing closer to the vest and some teams are getting off to unusually slow starts (Buffalo and New Jersey). Basically for those math majors out there, 58.9% of the games have been decided by one goal which is just about 3 out of every 5 games. Trident prides itself on being like by 4 out of 5 so this is a disturbing trend but again it is taken from a small sample size.
However it is noticeable enough to suggest a trend in the first month or so in the season that could be on the rise. We are going to follow this until the end of the month and see where the numbers lie for 2010-11. Will they stay around 50%? That is the burning question. Usually right before Halloween, the number of one goal games start tailing off as teams catch their stride. New Jersey struggled out of the gate the past three seasons before catching fire in late October and early November. Injuries have a role in this as well. Officially there are 92 players on the injury list and this does not include players that are probable. The number rises to 105 when you take those players into account.
Basically underdogs have hit the majority of the season so far in the NHL. That number will not continue and by the way there have been only 16 blowouts (defined as a team winning by 3 goals or more). Eventually the favorites will start hitting more often but when does the trend start to revert back to “normal”. Does it ever realy head back? Those are questions that have uncertain answers.
Hopefully in a few more weeks, some trends will shake out the viral amount of underdog winners but intil then you may want to consider riding the wave. Thanks from Marco from pregametv.com for this video. Have a great night picking.
Marco slugs out his picks….
