The site On The Forecheck is a perfect example of just how the NHL blogging world has developed in such a short amount of time.
The Forechecker’s use of analytical calculations, as well as a knack to answer the questions you hadn’t thought to ask, raised the eyebrows of the traditional media world and he is now featured at Foxsports.com.
LS ~ How much would you say the NHL blogosphere has changed since the day you first joined?
Forechecker ~ Well, there are really two answers to that – before starting “On the Forecheck” actively about a year ago, I wrote online at a hockey website called ” In the Crease” back in the mid-1990’s. The main difference between today and back then is the raw level of individual personality you see coming through in blogs – the lunatic cartoons of Earl Sleek over at Battle of California, the personal insights ranging on topics from OHL internships to knee surgery over at Behind the Jersey, or the labyrinthine meditations found at Theory of Ice. Back during the “In the Crease” days, we were taking baby steps in this direction, but were still mostly aping newspaper columnists in terms of style, trying to establish a professional demeanor because that’s what we thought would attract the widest audience. As we’ve seen with the explosion of user-driven content on the internet via sites like YouTube, the broader audience really wants something else entirely.
The second half of this answer would be that since I started devoting time to my own blog about a year ago, we’ve seen just massive, unpredictable growth in the quality and diversity of the writing. Heck, there are even great blogs out there now for teams like Columbus and Phoenix, which just goes to show how devoted true hockey fans really are. There have also been a flameout or two, like the downfall of PredZone, but if anything I think that episode just reinforces the notion that playing the mainstream-media game isn’t where the blogosphere is headed. There are opportunities opening up all the time to take things in a different direction.
LS ~ Can you think of another place on the net that solely focuses on statistical analysis having to do with the NHL?
Forechecker ~ The starting point for me is HockeyAnalytics.com, where Alan Ryder has some nice pieces posted regarding player valuation, Shot Quality, and other topics. Other top stat junkies would include JavaGeek over at Hockey Numbers, and Gabriel Desjardins at Behind The Net.
LS ~ How did you come up with the idea?
Forechecker ~ From 1998-2005, I lived in the Indianapolis area, and mostly drifted out of my everyday NHL habit – that’s why I stopped writing for In the Crease. A new job brought me to Nashville, however, and that got the creative juices flowing relative to NHL hockey. I got started with small articles here and there, but then in September, I was browsing around at NHL.com and stumbled upon the play-by-play files that are posted for each night’s games. They’ve been out there for a while, but I hadn’t seen them before and started downloading files into Excel and seeing what I could do with them. For a while, it was hard just to pin down what ideas to pursue first – the raw data available at first gets you thinking anything’s possible, but once you begin to understand some of the quality issues (arena-to-arena variations are huge for some stats), that narrows the field down somewhat.
LS ~ Why do you think that there is so much interest among hockey fans, in number crunching?
Forechecker ~ We’ve seen such advances in other sports, particularly baseball, on this front, and there’s a natural need to try and provide some quantitative heft behind arguments behind questions like whether a finesse, puck-possession team is more apt to be successful than a physically dominating team, for example, or which 20-goal wingers are worth bringing in as free agents, and which ones are likely to be busts. Hockey has muddled along with pretty much the same statistics for decades now, and in the internet age, where you have a greater ability to dig into the details and provide frequent updates than you would in a typical newspaper or magazine column, the ground is fertile for this kind of analysis to grow.
LS ~ Besides obviously a calculator and an abacus, what other types of tools do you have at your disposal, in order to come up with your research?
Forechecker ~ Microsoft Excel 2007, and plenty of macros. With 2007, the old limitation of 65,000 records in a spreadsheet is gone, which really helps when trying to analyze the trends across 72,000 shots during an NHL season! All of my analysis so far has been built on one-off spreadsheets pulling in the data required, but over the summer, I plan on formalizing things into a database structure that I can update automatically. That should drastically cut down the time it takes to develop any given train of thought.
LS ~ Have you spent much time looking back at the history of hockey (considering stats aren’t as easy to come by), in hopes of drawing up some of the formulas you use for the game today?
Forechecker ~ I haven’t really gone down that road yet, and for the short-term, I’d only be interested in going back as far as the play-by-play files allow (only a couple years, as I understand). Most of what I do is summarized up from that detailed level.
LS ~ Considering the number of asterisks needed in stats sheets nowadays, does the constant rule changing of the NHL, irk you at all?
Forechecker ~ I’ve avoided most of that by focusing my efforts on the post-lockout era – but once I get the database structures defined, I plan on populating it as far back as I can go, and then I’ll be able to see how the game has changed since that time. Overall, I like the changes that were made in recent years (especially the elimination of two-line passes and touch-up offsides). It’s not like the game has changed so much that serious records are being challenged (the one exception being the goaltending victories mark, of course).
I guess what bugs me most is the never-ending stream of commentators recommending more and more change based on whatever trend they see. The league could do well by declaring a moratorium on further change for a couple years, and see how things shake out over time.
LS ~ Who would you say is the greatest player the NHL has ever seen? And why?
Forechecker ~ Gretzky is one obvious choice, but I lean towards Gordie Howe. The guy was in the top 10 in league scoring for 24 straight freaking seasons, from his late teens to his early 40’s. All that, and he was the toughest SOB on the ice every night.
LS ~ Can you tell us anything about your experiences with FOX Sports.com?
Forechecker ~ I could, but then I’d have to hunt you down and kill you, along with anyone else who reads this. Frankly, I don’t have the time or the energy for that.
Seriously, those folks have been great, they re-host some of my material over there so it reaches a wider audience, which is a nice ego-boost.
LS ~ What is next in store for the Forechecker?
Forechecker ~ For now, it’s enjoying the playoffs and trying out the predictive model I’m using. Over the summer, it’s all about formalizing my data, taking a serious run at player valuation (in time for free agent season), and just waiting for some enterprising NHL GM who wants to get ahead of the curve to offer me a front office job with a big honking server to work with. Hey, in the salary cap era, you have to find other areas besides just outspending on players to get that competitive edge, right?
