HockeyMetrics at www.mikedunshee.com
Saturday, Bruins GM Peter Chiarelli finally made the big move fans have been awaiting by trading Brad Stuart along with Wayne Primeau to Calgary in exchange for Andrew Ference and Chuck Kobasew. It is an interesting deal in the fact that it is not exactly a white flag wave by Chiarelli; while most would readily concede that Stuart is the marquee player in the deal, both Calgary players are beyond raw prospect stage and have a proven track record. Clearly Chiarelli came to the realization that he could not re-sign Stuart and went out seeking the best available deal. In my opinion he simply did not deal for picks and prospects because the team simply cannot afford to go in a full rebuilding mode right now. After inking Zdeno Chara and Marc Savard to mega free agent contracts in the offseason, neither Chiarelli, nor Chara and Savard, nor the Bruins fans for that matter are likely to endure a full on rebuild. That is why Chiarelli instead acquired Ference (27) and Kobasew (24). Without having seen Kobasew or Ference play often I checked in with some Calgary fans, and I was pleasantly surprised to find that almost to a man they all expressed regret in losing the pair, with a good amount feeling that Boston actually got the better of the deal. Luckily for us, they keep track of stats in sports, and even more conveniently I have spent many hours sifting through these stats in order to make more meaningful comparisons; this trade gives us a great opportunity to take a look.
First the forwards:
Wayne Primeau is a well traveled veteran with an expiring contract at the end of the season. His overall rankings the last four seasons according to my stats database are respectively; (02-06) .353, .607, .822 and .700. Primeau was rather healthy in all but the 01-02 season (33 games) as his per game ratings of .877, .647, .936, .809 attests. Throughout the years Primeau has ranked strongest in the ice time category and ranked poorly in the plus/minus factor category (.426, .455, .621, .621) leading one to believe his reputation as a defensive forward may be overstated.
Kobasew seems to be a player similar to Brandon Bochenski and Stanislav Chistov; two Chiarelli pickups from earlier this season. All three wingers in their mid 20’s who have scored in bunches at the lower levels but not put it together on the NHL level yet. In 210 NHL games Chuck has put together overall ratings of (03-06); .254, .619, .853, with per game ratings of .905, .725, .908. His main areas of strength have been generating shots and shooting percentage and weakest in time on ice so there is certainly reason to be optimistic for improvement in the future.
The Defenseman:
Andrew Ference signed a deal to stay close to home with the Flames in the off season eschewing the free agent market only to find himself months later shipped to the dreadful Bruins. Hey man, I’d feel bad for you…if I was a pro athlete and cashing those checks. In the last four seasons Ference has put up overall numbers of; .832, .357, .867, .847 with per game numbers of; .909, .770, .988, .847. Far from spectacular but very solid ratings, Ference over the last two seasons has demonstrated some offensive skill (points per game .715, 1.174) but saw a drop off in his plus/minus factor (.901, .684). Overall Ference seems to be a quality NHL defenseman.
Brad Stuart was the big name in the trade and was clearly happy to get out of Boston. Though he has not yet lived up to his pre-NHL billing, the numbers bear out Stuart being the superior player in the deal with overall factors of (02-06); 1.078, .497, 1.119 and 1.128. In the only season he missed significant games (02-03) Stuart clocked in with a 1.132 per game rating and has been consistently above league averages in almost all categories. In closing the Flames got the best player in the deal, but Boston did not do terribly. Considering Stuart was bound to walk getting Ference and Kobasew gives the Bruins serviceable players who are ready to contribute immediately.
Tuesday night the Bruins celebrate John Bucyk against the Oilers and there will be many old-timers in the house. Seeing as how the Oilers are the opponent, I say pull out the old 77 jersey, grab a six pack and pretend its Game 7 of the Finals. Why not right?
