(Photo Credit: Greg Caggiano)
Simply it is unfair to probably pay this much attention to a guy who plays in one of the league’s biggest markets but now Marian Gaborik will have even more scrutiny heaped on him whether he wants it or not. Why? Well since the New York Rangers brought in Brad Richards, the excuses of last year are now off the table. If he was playing nagging injuries or not does not matter now. Gaborik has to produce but the question next becomes how many games does he play.
Why is this even a worthwhile question in the early stages of August. This is because having even somewhat of an idea as far as an answer does have long term consequences to your fantasy team. Honest! First off we do have to look at the injuries. Thank you TSN for the following:
Transactions / Injuries / Suspensions
| 2011/03/06 | Missed 6 games (concussion). |
|---|---|
| 2011/02/22 | Concussion, day-to-day. |
| 2010/12/27 | Missed 1 game (groin). |
| 2010/12/23 | Groin, day-to-day. |
| 2010/11/29 | Missed 1 game (flu). |
| 2010/11/27 | Flu, day-to-day. |
| 2010/11/11 | Missed 12 games (separated left shoulder). |
| 2010/10/17 | Separated left shoulder, injured reserve. |
| 2010/03/06 | Missed 3 games (right thigh injury). |
| 2010/02/14 | Right thigh injury, day-to-day. |
| 2010/02/12 | Missed 1 game (lacerated knee). |
| 2010/02/10 | Lacerated knee, sidelined indefinitely. |
| 2009/11/01 | Missed 2 games (right leg injury). |
| 2009/10/28 | Right leg injury, day-to-day. |
| 2009/07/01 | Signed as an unrestricted free agent by the New York Rangers to a five-year contract. |
| 2009/03/22 | Missed 38 games (hip surgery). |
| 2008/12/24 | Groin, sidelined indefinitely. |
| 2008/12/17 | Missed 27 games (back injury). |
| 2008/10/16 | Back injury, day-to-day. |
| 2007/11/15 | Missed 3 games (groin). |
| 2007/11/05 | Groin, day-to-day. |
| 2007/11/01 | Missed 2 games (groin). |
| 2007/10/27 | Groin, day-to-day. |
| 2007/01/06 | Missed 34 games (groin strain). |
| 2007/01/02 | Groin strain, day-to-day. |
| 2006/10/21 | Groin strain, sidelined indefinitely. |
| 2006/07/05 | Re-signed as a restricted free agent by the Minnesota Wild to a three-year contract. |
| 2005/11/23 | Missed 11 games (hip flexor). |
| 2005/10/25 | Hip flexor, sidelined indefinitely. |
| 2005/10/19 | Missed 6 games (groin). |
| 2005/10/04 | Groin, mid-October. |
| 2005/09/28 | Groin, day-to-day. |
| 2004/02/02 | Missed 5 games (hip flexor). |
| 2004/01/22 | Hip flexor, day-to-day. |
| 2003/10/31 | Re-signed by the Minnesota Wild to a multi-year contract. |
| 2003/06/30 | Minnesota Wild tendered a qualifying offer. |
| 2002/12/17 | Missed 1 game (flu). |
| 2002/12/15 | Flu, day-to-day. |
| 2001/12/28 | Missed 3 games (groin). |
| 2001/12/22 | Groin, day-to-day. |
| 2001/10/07 | Missed 1 game (hernia). |
| 2001/10/01 | Hernia, day-to-day. |
| 2001/04/08 | Missed the last 4 games of the regular season (abdominal strain). |
| 2001/04/02 | Abdominal strain, day-to-day. |
| 2000/11/30 | Missed 6 games (left leg injury). |
| 2000/11/17 | Left leg injury, day-to-day. |
So here is where the dilemma lies. People that have contended about the pesky groin issue need not apply here as Gaborik has had a myriad of injuries all over the place. If you played the game Operation, you might have a chance of guessing the next injury. Not all of these injuries could be tied to the groinal area (leg, hip, thigh, groin yes) but Gaborik has been at times a walking MASH unit over the last decade plus.
Last year Gaborik missed 20 games but the year before with the Rangers he missed only six. Three years ago he missed 65 games but the year before that he missed only five. There is no real set pattern other than to at least expect an injury or three but then to try and determine the severity of these injuries with Gaborik is anyone’s guess. However, we are going to attempt and gauge this because the amount of games determines his fantasy effectiveness obviously.
Normally he is a point a game or slightly above player but last year something was off. What that really was remains a mystery but against teams not in the bottom 5 in the league, Gaborik was well not quite himself. He was even about a half a shot game off from his usual average over the past several years. Is this a sign that he is due for another injury? Well the possibility does have to at least be explored.
As Marian Gaborik approaches 30, it is a critical time. He has to produce now but most importantly he has to be protected in practice and during game play. It seems most of his injuries happen away from game nights. This is very delicate as it seems one wrong move and he could be out weeks or months. Players like Gaborik who are extraordinary talents are often wound a different way but it seems as if the injury bug will never quite escape him.
Based on the data seen, we have come up with a fairly good estimate of how much Gaborik will actually play. This number was derived by taking his NHL career games dividing by the amount of NHL years played and adding in a few variables such as recovery time for these injuries normally. Add in the fact that he plays in the biggest American NHL market and here is our answer.
The Marian Gaborik over/under has been set at 70 games.
We feel that Gaborik according to the numbers will miss some time as per usual but should be able to play just about 7/8 of the season producing around 75-80 points in the interim. The points projection will be completed in detail later but the games played with this player was more paramount.
Lastly we took into account that were will be a gritty player of some sort with Richards and Gaborik that should add to the amount of games played. So give us your thoughts ladies and gentlemen. We had 60 last year and were only two off. Are we far off base this year or are we pretty close to the number? Give us your thoughts!
