We want your thoughts on this as we go foward towards the 2011-12 fantasy hockey season. There will be spotlights on various leagues but there was a need to explore this issue a bit further to see if people want meat and potatoes fantasy hockey or numbers until they bash their brains in. Here is one side thanks to a classic piece by Mike Dunshee.
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By: Mike Dunshee
Without delving to deep into the formulas, my hockey database basically measures forwards and defense averages ( 1.000) being the average) for a variety of different categories designed to measure the all-around game of each player and weighing each factor to come up with an “Overall Factor”. Lets take a look at the final numbers and see what we see;
The Top 10 Forwards
Player Overall Factor
- Jaromir Jagr 1.644
- Joe Thornton 1.559
- Jonathan Cheechoo 1.532
- Alexander Ovechkin 1.530
- Brian Gionta 1.505
- Sidney Crosby 1.473
- Dany Heatley 1.472
- Marian Hossa 1.439
- Teemu Selanne 1.430
- Brian Rolston 1.398
Pretty much the type of players you would expect on this list; we all know who the top players are, what we are trying to do is distinguish them from each other. First and second place are Jagr and Thornton, the players who finished 1-2 in the MVP balloting. Joe took the Hart, but my calculations have Jagr with the most productive overall season. If one is to argue that the mark of an MVP is making ones teammates better, Cheechoo coming in third is a huge boost to the Thornton supporters. Cheechoo, of course ended up leading the league in goals after breaking out big time once being paired with Jumbo Joe. Brian Gionta was another sniper wing who broke out big time in 05-06 and lands in fifth place. No group of players made an impact in 05-06 quite like the rookies, the bog two Ovechkin and Crosby finish 4th and 6th here respectively so it looks like the Calder Trophy voters went the right way with Ovechkin. The 1.530 and 1.473 scores they put up, were, not surprisingly the two highest scores for any rookies in the four seasons I charted. The next two players on the chart, Heatley and Hossa, were traded for each other just a couple of years back. These two players are two of the games great superstars that manage to fly way under the radar. Far from the biggest names in the game, they are two of the most exciting players out there. Looking at their trade in hindsight, I am having a hard time coming up with a one for one deal of two better players in the NHL in recent history. Anyone have anything? Finally we round out the Top 10 with two players with very different games. Teemu Selanne is a pure scorer and had a huge bounce back year with the new rules. Often a healthy scratch just two seasons ago, Selanne vaulted back into the games elite. Brian Rolston is one of the types of players whose true value can be better evaluated in this system. Long known as one of the games best all-around players, Rolston still is not a guy you would think listed as a ten best forward player in the league, here he shines outperforming most other forwards in the league. A prime example of why goals and points cannot be the lone measure of a player.
The Defenseman
Player Overall Factor
- Lubomir Visnovsky 1.454
- Nicklas Lidstrom 1.444
- Sergei Zubov 1.404
- Bryan McCabe 1.395
- Mathieu Schneider 1.365
- Tomas Kaberle 1.357
- Dion Phaneuf 1.356
- Joseph Corvo 1.351
- Chris Pronger 1.332
- Scott Niedermayer 1.321
Once again we see the cream of the crop rise here. For defenseman, scoring is done much more by a group of a few elite defensemen so we see the scorers floating to the top in a higher proportion than the forwards. Visnovsky had a huge break out year to lead the league here, yet was not even a Norris Trophy finalist. The Norris, like the Hart, went to our second place finisher Nicklas Lidstrom, his fourth time winning the award. Given the small margin between Nick and Visnovsky, one can’t really fault the award but shouldn’t have Visnovsky been a finalist at least? The other two finalist were Sergei Zubov, well deserved with a 3rd overall finish, and Scott Niedermayer who finished 10th. While John Buccigross has gone as far as calling Niedermayer the best overall player in the game, it does seem his Norris nomination had a lot to do with his huge reputation. Fourth and sixth place were held down by the Maple Leafs big duo of McCabe and Kaberle who both posted some of the biggest numbers of their careers. We find another partner in fifth, as Nicklas Lidstroms’ teammate Mathieu Schneider had an impressive season. Dion Phaneuf is the future of defense and look for him to move up this list in coming years and collect some Norris Trophies. Joe Corvo comes in 8th making it the third set of teammates on this list. Corvo, like Visnovsky, had a huge breakout season in LA. Corvo has since moved on to Ottawa and will try to replace Zdeno Chara. The mention of Chara might lead one to wonder where is Big Z and his former teammate Wade Redden? One factor in this formula is that all seven categories used in the overall calculation are each weighed by the percentage of games each player played in during the season. Both Chara and Redden missed significant time during the year and that caused them to miss the top ten. (Redden 28th, Chara 30th) The last two spots in the top ten are rounded out by two defensemen on their way to the Hall of Fame, Pronger and Niedermayer. Both players are widely hailed as being better than the 9th and 10th best defenseman in the league; still this is a one season snapshot and not an end all rating.
A Predictor?
Can this formula be applied to predict who will break out? I tried using the Per Game rankings for my “sleeper” breakouts this season. I was looking for players who had a decent sample size (25-60 games) but who had for any reason missed a good portion of the season. At the same time omitting the obvious players who were injured (i.e. Rick Nash) Some of the candidates:
Player PG Factor Games
- Daniel Briere 1.402 48
- Colby Armstrong 1.366 47
- Ladislav Nagy 1.317 51
- Martin Havlat 1.285 18
- Marek Svatos 1.264 61
- Tim Connolly 1.188 63
- Steve Bernier 1.174 38
- Matt Carle 1.548 12
- Sami Salo 1.340 59
- Kurtis Foster 1.236 58
It’s far from a fool proof method, but if you followed these numbers picking your fantasy rosters, you probably have a very well filled out team. As always to check out more go to http://www.mikedunshee.com/ or email me at mdunsh@inbox.com
