It is said that Ryan Callahan is ready for the next step. The Rangers have generously signed him to a 3 year, $12.875 million dollar deal, hence avoiding arbitration. Is he worth it? Will he fulfill his potential based on his “breakout” season that was cut short due to a shot block? There are many other questions so we will now try to provide at least the fantasy answers.
The key thing about Callahan is that he has an “intangibles” that most players do not have even including one that was recently rewarded as well (see Brandon Dubinsky). They will make nearly the same amount of dollars (give or take a few hundred grand). However, Callahan is inevitably going to have a bigger fantasy impact and here is why.
Callahan’s progression has been clearly marked by fans, experts, and media alike. He plays with an edge without going over it. Rarely does he take those silly penalties that kill a team and yet also seems to be at the right place at the right time. He has a “Skaters’ IQ”. This is something hard to quantify but when you watch an entire game, one can see that Ryan Callahan clearly has it. The whole package is there and it is only a matter of time before he shows that 41 times a year at Madison Square Garden.
In the meantime, we again take a look at his numbers from Hockey Reference. After all, this is a meat and potatoes interpretation. No weird delta or sigma symbols need apply here ladies and gentlemen.
Ryan Callahan’s Career Numbers:
| Yr | Tm | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | ATI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-07 | NYR | 14 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 10:31 |
| 07-08 | NYR | 52 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 92 | 12:22 |
| 08-09 | NYR | 81 | 22 | 18 | 40 | 7 | 45 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 237 | 17:04 |
| 09-10 | NYR | 77 | 19 | 18 | 37 | -12 | 48 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 204 | 19:24 |
| 10-11 | NYR | 60 | 23 | 25 | 48 | -7 | 46 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 179 | 19:54 |
| Car | 284 | 76 | 68 | 144 | 0 | 179 | 21 | 2 | 11 | 752 | 17:07 |
Now one does not need to be a math major to see that his numbers and points per game in particular jumped nicely last season from the previous two. He was a year fiver as I like to call it or a guy who steadily goes up and then in year five….the light comes on. After that the career goes upward and does not look back. There are a few examples in the NHL now (like Brandon Dubinsky potentially). The 0.80 points per game and ten power play goals are no fluke. Consider that Callahan had nine power play tallies the previous season. There is an ability that he has that no other Ranger has to get to the net on the man advantage and convert. If he sees extensive PP1 time then look out.
Why? Brad Richards will be feeding him the puck. That sounds like a rather nice upgrade and Callahan has the talent to play with a guy like Richards. While they would not be paired together even strength, a Richards-Gaborik-Callahan trio could pay huge dividends. Ryan Callahan is just a little more effective than Sean Avery on the man advantage at this juncture in their respective careers. A boost to 12-15 power play goals would not be shocking and really is based on last season’s numbers as well.
So it is time to play our version of who does it help and who does it hurt.
Who does it help?
1. Brandon Dubinsky
2. Brad Richards
3. Marian Gaborik
Who does it hurt?
1. Sean Avery (somewhat)
2. Atlantic Division goalies
3. Brian Boyle (indirectly)
There are reasons why and now we should explain them. Brandon Dubinsky gets a slight boost having Callahan with him, hopefully for an entire season. That brings his numbers up a touch obviously. Brad Richards gets a boost because Callahan has Captain like intangibles including the ability to get Richards ready for the rigors of playing in New York. Also, Richards will enjoy Callahan’s knack of getting to the front of the net in scoring position. Marian Gaborik has to bounce back a bit especially on the man advantage. Last year, he could not have been much worse. Maybe Callahan can at least help Gaborik’s assist total.
The hurt is somewhat obvious. This is likely the last year we see Sean Avery in New York and it may not even last a full year at the current rate. His production and usefulness has dipped and the act keeps wearing old. Clearly Coach Tortorella cannot motivate Avery to be effective enough consistently enough. Maybe Avery should look at a Callahan perhaps. Now goalies in the league should watch as well and even Brian Boyle may take an indirect dip because Callahan will get increased ice time that Boyle did see somewhat because of the injury to Callahan.
What is going to be Callahan’s ultimate point projection? Well again it is July and a bit early to fully known all possible line combinations and such. However, if we go with the old gut and take a stab, we may be able to come pretty close here. That said, Callahan could slot himself as the #2 or #3 fantasy option offensively for the Rangers, coming in at around 30-32 goals and 30-35 assists which would be good for around 65 points this year if all breaks right. 70 seems out of the question for now.
So let us have it Ranger fans because we know you are dying to. Bring the heat and spare nothing because we believe that Ryan Callahan is a better fantasy hockey option than Brandon Dubinsky. There you have it. Can you dig it?
