So as the mercury approached 100 in some parts of the tri-state area yesterday, it got me thinking why will this year’s free agent frenzy be as cool as a cucumber? Using these bad cliches are not always in the best of taste but it kind of is what it is. Like we said before with Patrick Marleau (the #2 UFA on just about everyone’s board gone), and several free agents signing new deals, the amount of quality players has dwindled. I am not saying that the pool is shallow, I am merely saying the pool lacks a lot of quality.
Looking around at what is seemingly left, there are some pretty good pieces that can be added but the problem becomes the price. With the cap going up to 59.4 million dollars this year, and some unusual suspects that can spend this year…it is all but certain there will be some nice signings and one big boom. That boom will occur when Ilya Kovalchuk signs. After that, Anton Volchenkov would be the next big domino pretty much. Who would have thought that? Not me.
The funny thing about all of this is everyone still has to do their interview requests and try to talk this up as best as they can. It is like a used car salesman who has very few good models and a bunch of unknowns. With that being said, it is time to unveil our first and (maybe last) Probability Index of some of the top unrestricted free agents. One bit of caution. This does not mean they are going to the predestined location. It just means the chance that they are leaving their current team. No one wants the stigma of that “E” guy and certainly not us…not ever.
The Program Probability Index
1. Ilya Kovalchuk, RW, New Jersey Devils
Prob Index: 80%
Potential Suitors: LA Kings, LA Kings, LA Kings, mystery team, NJ Devils
The WHY: This is simple. All signs indicate that Dean Lombardi and the Kings are going to throw this outrageous offer at Kovalchuk on Thursday. After that, there is New Jersey who is trying to make a push to make an attempt at least and then a third mystery team. No one really is sure who the identity of this third team would be. But it just seems a twist may set up here. Maybe it will not but it would certainly give July 1st some intrigue. However, I do not see it. Kovalchuk gets some crazy 8 year, 75 million dollar offer from LA and signs on the dotted line.
2. Anton Volchenkov, D, Ottawa Senators
Prob Index 100%
Potential Suitors: NJ Devils, NY Islanders (maybe), NY Rangers, Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals (less likely), and several other teams as well.
The WHY: Volchenkov is the #1 defenseman on the market in a year where defensemen are in short supply. If anyone knows that great old supply and demand curve then you know why this is the perfect year for Volchenkov to be an unrestricted free agent. When you block shots and can hit people like Volchenkov can, it is always nice. The problem is Volchenkov sacrifices his body far more than maybe he should. That could scare a few teams away but not too many. I can see Volchenkov getting a five year deal for around 25-27 million dollars. He will sign with the New York Rangers in a bit of a surprise.
3. Evgeni Nabokov, G, San Jose Sharks
Prob Index: 100%
Potential Suitors: Philadelphia Flyers, KHL, NY Islanders (just because), Ottawa Senators, Tampa Bay, Edmonton
The WHY: The problem with Nabokov has been his playoff performances and moody demeanor. His price tag (made 6.3 million last year) scares some teams too along with his price demands. Is this guy really worth that much? The NHLPA has gone on record saying that Nabokov does not qualify for the 35+ and over contract which is good news for teams. The question then becomes who will take him on. Most Philly breathren have said it will not be Philly. Edmonton could be a dark horse IF they can get rid of the Bulin Wall (via buyout). I really do not know which way to guess on this one but I am thinking a 2 year, 10 million dollar deal to Tampa as an off the wall suggestion.
4. Paul Martin, D, New Jersey Devils
Prob Index: 75%
Potential Suitors: NY Rangers, Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning, Pittsburgh Penguins, Anaheim Ducks, mystery team?
The WHY: The Devils have a problem they always seem to have with defensemen lately. Their FA hits when the market seems short on defense. Bad luck perhaps? Martin will get overpaid and people will simply shrug it off as saying he played in a defensive system in New Jersey. To be honest, the guy has been good but when Martin Brodeur is your goalie, you do have some help back there. Paul Martin never has topped 10 goals or 40 points and yet the money will come in from someone because the market is so light on defensemen. I think the Ducks may swoop in and offer 5 years 23 million to Martin and that may be enough.
5. Dan Hamhuis, D, ????????
Prob Index: 100%
Potential Suitors: No on Philly or Nashville, Pittsburgh Penguins, NJ Devils, any team with a pulse…..
The WHY: Sorry for the vain attempt at humor but Hamhuis (his rights) have been with NSH, PHI, and now PIT this week. The clock is ticking until Thursday and I still say Pittsburgh has a third option in the chamber but that cannot be confirmed yet. One thing is for sure and that is this….Hamhuis will sign with someone on Thursday or Friday. Hamhuis is steady to some but uneven to others. But again, because of the market he is going to get around 4 million a year from someone. In the end, maybe Toronto trades Kaberle finally and signs him. So we will go with 4 years and 17 miilion or thereabouts. Sounds good to me.
Do you have any other UFA’s you want to see on The PPI? Just let us know. Comment away and have some fun with it. Frenzy is two days away and there will be wall to wall coverage everywhere.
